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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 30 yards to TB 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-21-A.Davis. ** Injury Update: MIA-3-K.Britt has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.04 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP