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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 24

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 16-W.Reichard 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.50 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model