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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 11

Miami Dolphins 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 47-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model