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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 38

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(8:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 1-R.Pearsall to CHI 24 for 14 yards (26-N.Wright).

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.76 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model