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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 18

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 37

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 85-T.McBride for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.17 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model