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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 59

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to NE 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.28 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model