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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 44

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 42

What Actually Happened

(5:40) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short middle to 18-I.Williams to NE 34 for 10 yards (25-M.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.80 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP