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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 54

Houston Texans 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to LAC 2, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-42-J.Ingram.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.82 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model