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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(9:59) Direct snap to 84-M.Evans. 84-M.Evans up the middle to SEA 47 for 1 yard (0-D.Lawrence; 99-L.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.12 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model