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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 17

Tennessee Titans 16 – Los Angeles Rams 33

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 6-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.93 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model