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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

LA
67.3%
TEN
32.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LA: Cam Ward (TEN) -0.394 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.132 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Cam Ward (TEN) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

LA 25
–
TEN 19
Projected margin: LA by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

LA

Colby Parkinson TE Doubtful Shoulder
Steve Avila G Doubtful Ankle

TEN

JC Latham T Out Hip
T'Vondre Sweat DT Out Ankle
Kevin Winston Jr. S Doubtful Hamstring
Kalel Mullings RB Doubtful Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 33
–
TEN 19

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:48 TD LA (8:48) 12-P.Nacua left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – TEN 0
  • Q2 11:26 FG TEN (11:26) 6-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. LA 7 – TEN 3
  • Q2 07:28 FG LA (7:28) 16-J.Karty 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 10 – TEN 3
  • Q2 00:49 TD TEN (:49) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 5-E.Ayomanor for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [10-J.Stewart]. LA 10 – TEN 9
  • Q2 00:03 FG TEN (:03) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. LA 10 – TEN 13
  • Q3 09:33 FG LA (9:33) 16-J.Karty 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 13 – TEN 13
  • Q3 03:37 FG TEN (3:37) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. LA 13 – TEN 16
  • Q3 01:21 TD LA (1:21) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen pushed ob at TEN 1 for 7 yards (29-J.Brownlee). Los Angeles Rams challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – TEN 16
  • Q4 09:44 TD LA (9:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – TEN 16
  • Q4 06:48 TD LA (6:48) 22-B.Corum up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 33 – TEN 16
  • Q4 02:44 FG TEN (2:44) 6-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. LA 33 – TEN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:13) 3-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to LA 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-X.Smith to LA 28 for 14 yards (84-G.Helm).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 47%

    (8:48) 12-P.Nacua left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (6:45) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to LA 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:13) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to TEN 15, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-88-J.Whittington.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 34%

    (15:00) 1-C.Ward scrambles right end ran ob at LA 47 for 3 yards (4-A.Witherspoon).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 67%

    (11:26) 6-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

    (7:28) 16-J.Karty 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%

    (4:37) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to LA 5, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-80-B.Oliver.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (3:23) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to TEN 43, Center-47-A.Ward. 17-C.Dike for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TEN-33-C.Gray, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at LA 41.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

    (9:33) 16-J.Karty 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 11 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 62%

    (3:37) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:11) 3-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to LA 26, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 28%

    (12:07) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to TEN 6, Center-47-A.Ward. 17-C.Dike to TEN 27 for 21 yards (56-S.Dolac).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:16) 3-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to LA 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for no gain (80-B.Oliver).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (2:44) 6-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.