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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 45
Los Angeles Rams 0 – Tennessee Titans 0
What Actually Happened
(8:48) 12-P.Nacua left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+1.21 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.65 EP
KICK
-1.05 EP
- 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
- 53% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT
-0.55 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
