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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 1-C.Ward scrambles right end ran ob at LA 47 for 3 yards (4-A.Witherspoon).

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.77 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model