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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to TEN 15, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-88-J.Whittington.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.64 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP