Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 16 – Los Angeles Rams 27

(9:16) 3-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to LA 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-X.Smith to LA 34 for no gain (80-B.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.43 EP
71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 81, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model