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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to LA 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.59 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 58, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model