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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 14

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.36 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model