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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NYG
31.1%
DAL
68.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Russell Wilson (NYG): -0.035 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than NYG

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20
–
DAL 25
Projected margin: DAL by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NYG

Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Out Calf
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT Doubtful Foot
Andrew Thomas T Doubtful Foot
Wan'Dale Robinson WR Questionable Ankle

DAL

DaRon Bland CB Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 37
–
DAL 40

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 32 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:15 FG NYG (6:15) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 3 – DAL 0
  • Q1 01:09 FG NYG (1:09) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 6 – DAL 0
  • Q2 08:30 FG DAL (8:30) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYG 6 – DAL 3
  • Q2 05:43 TD NYG (5:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 1-M.Nabers for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 12 – DAL 3
  • Q2 02:16 TD DAL (2:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 9-K.Turpin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux, Defensive Offside, declined. NYG 13 – DAL 9
  • Q3 07:27 TD DAL (7:27) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right tackle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – DAL 16
  • Q3 05:41 FG NYG (5:41) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 16 – DAL 17
  • Q4 14:17 FG DAL (14:17) 17-B.Aubrey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYG 16 – DAL 20
  • Q4 12:09 TD NYG (12:09) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 22 – DAL 20
  • Q4 06:17 TD DAL (6:17) 24-M.Sanders right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 23 – DAL 26
  • Q4 02:50 TD NYG (2:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 17-W.Robinson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 29 – DAL 27
  • Q4 00:56 TD DAL (:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 30 – DAL 33
  • Q4 00:33 TD NYG (:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 36 – DAL 34
  • Q4 00:05 FG DAL (:05) 17-B.Aubrey 64 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYG 37 – DAL 37
  • Q5 00:04 FG DAL (:04) 17-B.Aubrey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYG 37 – DAL 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (6:15) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:58) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to NYG 23, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 31 for 8 yards (2-J.Thomas; 89-B.Spann-Ford).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (1:09) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:17) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NYG 19, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:21) 12-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to DAL 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 18 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 77%

    (8:30) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:46) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to DAL 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 34 for 6 yards (24-D.Belton; 49-C.Board). PENALTY on DAL-19-R.Flournoy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 30.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

    (10:25) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 44-C.Skattebo [90-S.Thomas].

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (5:41) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 13 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%

    (14:17) 17-B.Aubrey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 79%

    (2:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 17-W.Robinson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert to DAL 47 for 11 yards (22-A.Phillips). Penalty on NYG-22-A.Phillips, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.