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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 64

Dallas Cowboys 27 – New York Giants 30

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert to DAL 47 for 11 yards (22-A.Phillips). Penalty on NYG-22-A.Phillips, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.50 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -2.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model