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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 20

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 9-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.39 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model