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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 72

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to DAL 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 34 for 6 yards (24-D.Belton; 49-C.Board). PENALTY on DAL-19-R.Flournoy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.68 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 30, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model