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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 33

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.04 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model