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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 10

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(10:25) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 44-C.Skattebo [90-S.Thomas].

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.38 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 10, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model