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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 15

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.81 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model