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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to LAC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.37 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model