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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 24

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 39-C.Little 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.76 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model