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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 54 yards to WAS 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-J.Lane to WAS 30 for 14 yards (27-K.Oladapo). PENALTY on GB-59-T.Hopper, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 30.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.88 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model