Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 75

Chicago Bears 14 – Detroit Lions 28

(13:52) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to DET 21, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to DET 24 for 3 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.60 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model