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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 16-J.Meyers.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.15 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP