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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 43

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 8-S.Diggs to MIA 33 for 10 yards (15-Ja.Phillips; 9-I.Melifonwu).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.15 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.19 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model