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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 27 – New England Patriots 30

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 6-M.Washington INTERCEPTED by 15-M.Mapu at NE 42. 15-M.Mapu to MIA 38 for 20 yards (55-A.Brewer).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model