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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 47

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.61 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP