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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 49

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to PIT 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.80 EP