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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 52

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.85 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP