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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 8-R.Rehkow punts 63 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-W.Wagner. 11-P.Washington to JAX 28 for 15 yards (26-T.Anderson; 50-S.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.51 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model