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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 18

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.29 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model