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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 43

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 10-T.Way punts 35 yards to GB 8, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-18-T.Owens.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.49 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model