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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 61

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to GB 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 0-M.Golden to GB 4 for -2 yards (35-P.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.83 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model