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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(3:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 7-B.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.08 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 7, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model