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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 29 for -11 yards (0-D.Henley).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.37 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model