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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 20

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.93 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.95 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP