4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 33

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 16-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.01 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP