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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 89

Green Bay Packers 17 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to WAS 38, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-J.Lane to 50 for 12 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.87 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 89, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model