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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 54

Chicago Bears 14 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(7:45) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 14-O.Zaccheaus (91-T.Williams, 6-T.Arnold).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.72 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model