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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 13

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.32 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 13, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP