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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 37

Detroit Lions 14 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 59-G.Manu, 65-K.Eguakun and 95-P.O'Connor reported in as eligible. 39-J.Bates 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model