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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CIN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-C.Jones to CIN 23 for 11 yards (80-Q.Morris).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.20 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP