4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 39-C.Little 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 7, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model