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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 34

Washington Commanders 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 16-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.49 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model