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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 51-N.Herbig (97-Ca.Heyward) at PIT 38. 51-N.Herbig to SEA 21 for 41 yards (40-R.Ouzts; 88-A.Barner).

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.91 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model